Convexity analysis
Ranks props by distribution asymmetry and volatility, not by raw win probability.
Using the latest base model slate. Convexity is computed from historical logs and Monte Carlo samples only.
How to use this page
Convexity analysis is a research tool, not a raw picks list. It surfaces props whose simulated outcome distributions look unusually asymmetric or volatile, which can matter most when you are evaluating harder alt-line markets such as Demon entries.
What it measures
The score blends distribution width, side-aligned tail probability, and minutes instability. Higher convexity means the shape of the distribution is more extreme, not that the pick is automatically more likely to hit.
What to look for
Start with the line type and decision filters, then compare Convexity Score with Tail Prob, Width, and P90. Strong research candidates usually show real upside tail support, not just noisy minutes-driven volatility.
How to interpret results
Use this page together with historical admin results and the main picks view. Medium convexity bands can outperform the highest bands, so treat the table as a ranking aid for research and filtering rather than a simple “highest score wins” board.