FAQ / How It Works

Guidance for using Hoop Props and interpreting the slate without statistical jargon.

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What Hoop Props Is (and Is Not)

Hoop Props is an NBA player prop analytics tool that turns betting lines into estimated win probabilities and ranks props by model-derived edge.

  • It helps you decide when a prop looks mispriced (and when to pass).
  • It does not guarantee outcomes, and it is not financial advice.
  • It is not a “locks” feed and it is not a replacement for responsible bankroll management.

How Probabilities Are Generated (High Level)

Hoop Props estimates the chance of an Over/Under winning by looking at how a player has performed in similar situations and combining multiple independent model signals into a single estimate.

The exact math is intentionally not shown, but you can think of it like this: multiple “opinions” (recent form, longer-term history, distribution-based estimates, simulations) are blended to produce a stable probability estimate.

How to Read the Props Table

Key columns

  • Decision: Which side (Over or Under) the model prefers.
  • Recommendation: Whether the model thinks it’s worth betting or passing (“No Bet”).
  • Win Probability: The estimated chance that this pick (Over or Under) wins, based on all models combined.
  • Edge (%): The difference between the model’s win probability and the implied probability from the line.
  • Confidence Score: A reliability score based on model agreement, data volume, and recent player performance.
  • Simulation Prob: Win probability estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of player outcomes.
  • Model Estimate: Average win probability across analytical models (historical, Bayesian, KDE, etc.).

A simple workflow

  1. Start at the top of the slate (best-ranked picks first).
  2. Focus on props with a clear Recommendation (not “No Bet”).
  3. Use Edge (%) to compare value across props, not to “force” action.
  4. If the slate is weak, passing is a valid decision.

Use the Tool Responsibly

  • Models can be wrong—injuries, rotations, pace, role changes, etc.
  • A “high probability” pick can still lose. Variance is real.
  • Use Hoop Props as one input in a disciplined process, not a promise of results.

Common Misconceptions

  • “The model says 70%, so it should hit.” A 70% pick is expected to lose about 30% of the time over the long run.
  • “More picks means more profit.” More volume can mean more risk. Quality matters.
  • “If it missed yesterday, it’s ‘due’.” Past misses do not create future wins.

Disclaimer

Hoop Props provides estimates based on historical data and model assumptions. No pick is guaranteed. Sports outcomes are uncertain and betting involves risk, including the risk of losing your entire stake.

By using Hoop Props, you acknowledge that you are responsible for your own decisions and results.